Research on simulation model validation based on probability relational analysis

基于概率关联分析的仿真模型验证方法研究

¹ China Huayin Ordnance Test Center, Huayin 714200, China
² College of Astronautics, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi'an 710072, China
³ Xi'an Modern Control Technology Research Institute, Xi'an 710065, China

Received: 21 December 2020

Abstract

The most basic and direct method for simulation model validation is to compare the consistency of missile flight data and simulation data under the same input conditions. However, the existing dynamic data consistency analysis methods are mainly suitable for the case between 1-D missile flight data and 1-D simulation data, and do not conform to the consistency test of single sample flight data and multi-sample simulation data in equipment qualification/finalization test. To solve this problem, a simulation model validation method based on probabilistic relational analysis is proposed. The consistency of output data is measured from the two scales of probability relational coefficient and probability relational degree. The probability relational coefficient is determined by calculating the cumulative distribution probability value of real missile flight samples in the distribution function constructed by simulation data. The probability correlation degree is calculated by judging whether the probability relational coefficient satisfies the uniform distribution of[0 1]. The consistency analysis problem of a kind of dynamic data association is solved accordingly. The correlation theorem that the probability relational degree must satisfy and its property are proved. Meanwhile the operation steps of simulation model verification based on probability correlation analysis are given. This method can process all multi-dimensional simulation data at the same time, and integrate the random factors in the test process, so it can make full use of the test information under the condition of small sample flight test, and improve precision and the reliability of simulation model verification. The rationality and validity of this method are further verified by numerical tests and application examples.

摘要

最基本、最直接的仿真模型验证方法是比较相同输入条件下实弹飞行数据与仿真数据的一致性，但现有动态数据一致性检验方法主要适用单样本实弹飞行数据和单样本仿真数据的情况，不符合装备鉴定/定型工作中面临的单样本实弹飞行数据与多样本仿真数据的一致性检验需求。为此，提出一种基于概率关联分析的仿真模型验证方法。从概率关联系数和概率关联度2个尺度层面度量数据的一致性，通过计算实弹飞行样本在仿真数据构建的分布函数中的累积概率分布函数值确定概率关联系数；通过判断概率关联系数是否满足[0 1]均匀分布计算概率关联度，从而解决了一类动态数据关联的一致性分析问题。证明了概率关联度满足的关联定理及性质。给出了基于概率关联分析的仿真模型验证步骤。该方法能够同时处理多元仿真数据，融合了试验过程的随机因素，在小样本实弹飞行试验条件下更能充分利用试验信息，因此提高了仿真模型验证的精度和可靠度。通过数值测试和应用实例验证了新方法的合理性和有效性。