A Strategy for Uncertainty Evaluation of Airport Operation Safety Based on Interval Inverse Power Method

基于区间反幂法的机场运行安全不确定性评估策略

College of Civil Aviation/College of Flight, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 210016, China

Received: 6 October 2018

Abstract

In order to maintain a safe and suitable state of civil airports, it is necessary to conduct an airport operation safety evaluation. Aiming at uncertainty of airport operation safety evaluation and the deficiencies of analytic hierarchy process, we propose an improved analytic hierarchy process for solving this problem. By estimating the spectral radius of the interval judgment matrix and using it as shift, we propose an interval inverse power method with shift, and apply this algorithm to airport operation safety evaluation. The numerical examples show that this method can comprehensively consider the certainty and uncertainty of airport safety evaluation and compute the combined weight and relative importance of the evaluating indicators. Our method is more flexible and effective than traditional method, and is very suitable for uncertainty evaluation of airport operation safety.

摘要

为保证民航机场始终处于安全适用状态，对机场运行安全进行全面评估非常必要。针对机场运行安全评估中的不确定性和常用层次分析方法的不足，研究一种改进的层次分析方法，通过估计区间判断矩阵的谱半径，并将其作为位移，提出了一种带有位移的区间反幂法，并将此算法用于机场运行安全评估中。实际算例的数值计算表明本该算法能够综合考虑机场运行安全评估中的确定性和不确定性，根据机场运行监控决策者的偏好信息，综合计算机场运行安全评价指标的组合权重区间和相对重要程度，比传统的层次分析方法更具有效性和灵活性，非常适用于机场运行安全不确定评估工作中。